|
:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2010 Jul 06 1900 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to Ten adres pocztowy jest chroniony przed spamowaniem. Aby go zobaczyć, konieczne jest włączenie w przeglądarce obsługi JavaScript.
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# See the README3 file for further information.
#
# Missing or not applicable data: -1
#
# Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
# With Expected Ranges
#
# -----Sunspot Number------ ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2010 01 9.9 10.9 8.9 75.8 76.8 74.8
2010 02 12.5 14.5 10.5 77.6 78.6 76.6
2010 03 15.3 18.3 12.3 79.5 81.5 77.5
2010 04 18.1 23.1 13.1 81.3 84.3 78.3
2010 05 21.2 26.2 16.2 83.3 87.3 79.3
2010 06 24.2 30.2 18.2 85.3 89.3 81.3
2010 07 27.1 34.1 20.1 87.2 92.2 82.2
2010 08 29.9 36.9 22.9 88.9 94.9 82.9
2010 09 32.8 40.8 24.8 90.8 97.8 83.8
2010 10 36.4 45.4 27.4 93.2 101.2 85.2
2010 11 40.5 49.5 31.5 96.3 104.3 88.3
2010 12 44.5 54.5 34.5 99.6 108.6 90.6
2011 01 47.8 57.8 37.8 102.6 111.6 93.6
2011 02 50.7 60.7 40.7 105.2 114.2 96.2
2011 03 53.3 63.3 43.3 107.7 116.7 98.7
2011 04 55.9 65.9 45.9 110.0 119.0 101.0
2011 05 58.5 68.5 48.5 112.4 121.4 103.4
2011 06 60.9 70.9 50.9 114.6 123.6 105.6
2011 07 63.3 73.3 53.3 116.8 125.8 107.8
2011 08 65.7 75.7 55.7 119.0 128.0 110.0
2011 09 67.9 77.9 57.9 121.0 130.0 112.0
2011 10 70.0 80.0 60.0 123.0 132.0 114.0
2011 11 72.1 82.1 62.1 124.9 133.9 115.9
2011 12 74.0 84.0 64.0 126.7 135.7 117.7
2012 01 75.9 85.9 65.9 128.4 137.4 119.4
2012 02 77.6 87.6 67.6 130.0 139.0 121.0
2012 03 79.3 89.3 69.3 131.5 140.5 122.5
2012 04 80.8 90.8 70.8 132.9 141.9 123.9
2012 05 82.2 92.2 72.2 134.1 143.1 125.1
2012 06 83.5 93.5 73.5 135.3 144.3 126.3
2012 07 84.6 94.6 74.6 136.4 145.4 127.4
2012 08 85.7 95.7 75.7 137.4 146.4 128.4
2012 09 86.6 96.6 76.6 138.2 147.2 129.2
2012 10 87.5 97.5 77.5 139.0 148.0 130.0
2012 11 88.2 98.2 78.2 139.6 148.6 130.6
2012 12 88.7 98.7 78.7 140.2 149.2 131.2
2013 01 89.2 99.2 79.2 140.6 149.6 131.6
2013 02 89.6 99.6 79.6 140.9 149.9 131.9
2013 03 89.8 99.8 79.8 141.1 150.1 132.1
2013 04 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.3 150.3 132.3
2013 05 90.0 100.0 80.0 141.3 150.3 132.3
2013 06 89.9 99.9 79.9 141.2 150.2 132.2
2013 07 89.7 99.7 79.7 141.0 150.0 132.0
2013 08 89.4 99.4 79.4 140.7 149.7 131.7
2013 09 89.0 99.0 79.0 140.4 149.4 131.4
2013 10 88.5 98.5 78.5 139.9 148.9 130.9
2013 11 87.9 97.9 77.9 139.4 148.4 130.4
2013 12 87.2 97.2 77.2 138.8 147.8 129.8
2014 01 86.4 96.4 76.4 138.1 147.1 129.1
2014 02 85.6 95.6 75.6 137.3 146.3 128.3
2014 03 84.7 94.7 74.7 136.4 145.4 127.4
2014 04 83.7 93.7 73.7 135.5 144.5 126.5
2014 05 82.6 92.6 72.6 134.5 143.5 125.5
2014 06 81.4 91.4 71.4 133.5 142.5 124.5
2014 07 80.2 90.2 70.2 132.3 141.3 123.3
2014 08 78.9 88.9 68.9 131.2 140.2 122.2
2014 09 77.6 87.6 67.6 129.9 138.9 120.9
2014 10 76.2 86.2 66.2 128.7 137.7 119.7
2014 11 74.8 84.8 64.8 127.4 136.4 118.4
2014 12 73.3 83.3 63.3 126.0 135.0 117.0
2015 01 71.8 81.8 61.8 124.6 133.6 115.6
2015 02 70.2 80.2 60.2 123.2 132.2 114.2
2015 03 68.7 78.7 58.7 121.7 130.7 112.7
2015 04 67.0 77.0 57.0 120.2 129.2 111.2
2015 05 65.4 75.4 55.4 118.7 127.7 109.7
2015 06 63.8 73.8 53.8 117.2 126.2 108.2
2015 07 62.1 72.1 52.1 115.7 124.7 106.7
2015 08 60.4 70.4 50.4 114.1 123.1 105.1
2015 09 58.7 68.7 48.7 112.6 121.6 103.6
2015 10 57.0 67.0 47.0 111.0 120.0 102.0
2015 11 55.3 65.3 45.3 109.5 118.5 100.5
2015 12 53.6 63.6 43.6 107.9 116.9 98.9
2016 01 51.9 61.9 41.9 106.3 115.3 97.3
2016 02 50.2 60.2 40.2 104.8 113.8 95.8
2016 03 48.5 58.5 38.5 103.2 112.2 94.2
2016 04 46.9 56.9 36.9 101.7 110.7 92.7
2016 05 45.2 55.2 35.2 100.2 109.2 91.2
2016 06 43.6 53.6 33.6 98.7 107.7 89.7
2016 07 42.0 52.0 32.0 97.2 106.2 88.2
2016 08 40.4 50.4 30.4 95.8 104.8 86.8
2016 09 38.8 48.8 28.8 94.3 103.3 85.3
2016 10 37.3 47.3 27.3 92.9 101.9 83.9
2016 11 35.7 45.7 25.7 91.5 100.5 82.5
2016 12 34.3 44.3 24.3 90.2 99.2 81.2
2017 01 32.8 42.8 22.8 88.8 97.8 79.8
2017 02 31.4 41.4 21.4 87.5 96.5 78.5
2017 03 30.0 40.0 20.0 86.3 95.3 77.3
2017 04 28.7 38.7 18.7 85.0 94.0 76.0
2017 05 27.4 37.4 17.4 83.8 92.8 74.8
2017 06 26.1 36.1 16.1 82.6 91.6 73.6
2017 07 24.9 34.9 14.9 81.5 90.5 72.5
2017 08 23.7 33.7 13.7 80.4 89.4 71.4
2017 09 22.5 32.5 12.5 79.3 88.3 70.3
2017 10 21.4 31.4 11.4 78.3 87.3 69.3
2017 11 20.3 30.3 10.3 77.3 86.3 68.3
2017 12 19.2 29.2 9.2 76.4 85.4 67.4
2018 01 18.2 28.2 8.2 75.4 84.4 66.4
2018 02 17.2 27.2 7.2 74.5 83.5 65.5
2018 03 16.3 26.3 6.3 73.7 82.7 64.7
2018 04 15.4 25.4 5.4 72.8 81.8 63.8
2018 05 14.5 24.5 4.5 72.1 81.1 63.1
2018 06 13.7 23.7 3.7 71.3 80.3 62.3
2018 07 12.9 22.9 2.9 70.6 79.6 61.6
2018 08 12.2 22.2 2.2 69.9 78.9 60.9
2018 09 11.5 21.5 1.5 69.2 78.2 60.2
2018 10 10.8 20.8 0.8 68.6 77.6 60.0
2018 11 10.1 20.1 0.1 68.0 77.0 60.0
2018 12 9.5 19.5 0.0 67.4 76.4 60.0
2019 01 8.9 18.9 0.0 66.9 75.9 60.0
2019 02 8.3 18.3 0.0 66.3 75.3 60.0
2019 03 7.8 17.8 0.0 65.9 74.9 60.0
2019 04 7.3 17.3 0.0 65.4 74.4 60.0
2019 05 6.8 16.8 0.0 65.0 74.0 60.0
2019 06 6.4 16.4 0.0 64.5 73.5 60.0
2019 07 5.9 15.9 0.0 64.1 73.1 60.0
2019 08 5.5 15.5 0.0 63.8 72.8 60.0
2019 09 5.1 15.1 0.0 63.4 72.4 60.0
2019 10 4.8 14.8 0.0 63.1 72.1 60.0
2019 11 4.4 14.4 0.0 62.8 71.8 60.0
2019 12 4.1 14.1 0.0 62.5 71.5 60.0
Space Weather Prediction Center moves the solar cycle goalpost again
25 02 2009
Mike Ronanye writes:
SWPC has just made a change in their solar cycle predictions in the middle of the month without any preannouncement. Both Sunspot and F10.7cm predictions were altered significantly.
See the following links:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
The off-cycle update is in this week’s PDF report which contains the altered graphics:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1747.pdf
You can see the last monthly summary here which I have been complaining reporting about, here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1745.pdf
This should have been the January 2009 summary but SWPC recycled the December 2008 summary.
I looked for but was unable to find any press releases. Please search for any additional information and post it here. If you downloaded any SWPC data or graphics hold on to it. I will be updating my SWPC Sunspot animation.
April 1, 2009: The sunspot cycle is behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom, it goes even lower.
2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008.
Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).
It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.
"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
Above: The sunspot cycle from 1995 to the present. The jagged curve traces actual sunspot counts. Smooth curves are fits to the data and one forecaster's predictions of future activity. Credit: David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC. [more]
Quiet suns come along every 11 years or so. It's a natural part of the sunspot cycle, discovered by German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe in the mid-1800s. Sunspots are planet-sized islands of magnetism on the surface of the sun; they are sources of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and intense UV radiation. Plotting sunspot counts, Schwabe saw that peaks of solar activity were always followed by valleys of relative calm—a clockwork pattern that has held true for more than 200 years: plot.
The current solar minimum is part of that pattern. In fact, it's right on time. "We're due for a bit of quiet—and here it is," says Pesnell.
But is it supposed to be this quiet? In 2008, the sun set the following records:
A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990s—the lowest point since such measurements began in the 1960s. The solar wind helps keep galactic cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. With the solar wind flagging, more cosmic rays are permitted to enter, resulting in increased health hazards for astronauts. Weaker solar wind also means fewer geomagnetic storms and auroras on Earth.
A 12-year low in solar "irradiance": Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996. The changes so far are not enough to reverse the course of global warming, but there are some other significant side-effects: Earth's upper atmosphere is heated less by the sun and it is therefore less "puffed up." Satellites in low Earth orbit experience less atmospheric drag, extending their operational lifetimes. Unfortunately, space junk also remains longer in Earth orbit, increasing hazards to spacecraft and satellites.
Above: Space-age measurements of the total solar irradiance (brightness summed across all wavelengths). This plot, which comes from researcher C. Fröhlich, was shown by Dean Pesnell at the Fall 2008 AGU meeting during a lecture entitled "What is Solar Minimum and Why Should We Care?"
A 55-year low in solar radio emissions: After World War II, astronomers began keeping records of the sun's brightness at radio wavelengths. Records of 10.7 cm flux extend back all the way to the early 1950s. Radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955: plot. Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field. No one is certain, however, because the source of these long-monitored radio emissions is not fully understood.
All these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird", "extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually intense solar maxima.
"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."
Deep calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913, for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to last at least another year.
 In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, Hinode, ACE, Wind, TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.
Above: An artist's concept of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Bristling with advanced sensors, "SDO" is slated to launch later this year--perfect timing to study the ongoing solar minimum. [more]
Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum will end and how big the next solar maximum will be. Pesnell has surveyed the scientific literature and prepared a "piano plot" showing the range of predictions. The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.
Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013.
But like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong. Bull or bear? Stay tuned for updates.
SEND THIS STORY TO A FRIEND
Author:Ten adres pocztowy jest chroniony przed spamowaniem. Aby go zobaczyć, konieczne jest włączenie w przeglądarce obsługi JavaScript. | Credit: Science@NASA
Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle
December 22nd, 2006 
An erupting solar prominence photographed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).
Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one. Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.
window.google_render_ad();
Ads by Google
Energy Harvesting Report - www.idtechex.com/energy
Forecasts, players & opportunities new report from IDTechEx analysts
Nanomedicine Conference - www.clinam.org
European Conference for Clinical Nanomedicine. Basel, Apr 27-29,2009
Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.
Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect.
Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. "The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a thousand words:
Peaks in geomagnetic activity (red) foretell solar maxima (black) more than six years in advance. Credit: NASA
In the plot, above, black curves are solar cycles; the amplitude is the sunspot number. Red curves are geomagnetic indices, specifically the Inter-hour Variability Index or IHV. "These indices are derived from magnetometer data recorded at two points on opposite sides of Earth: one in England and another in Australia. IHV data have been taken every day since 1868," says Hathaway.
Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.
"We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."
According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.
Hathaway and Wilson's prediction for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. Credit: NASA
Astronomers have been counting sunspots since the days of Galileo, watching solar activity rise and fall every 11 years. Curiously, four of the five biggest cycles on record have come in the past 50 years. "Cycle 24 should fit right into that pattern," says Hathaway.
These results are just the latest signs pointing to a big Cycle 24. Most compelling of all, believes Hathaway, is the work of Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. "They have combined observations of the sun’s 'Great Conveyor Belt' with a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo to produce a physics-based prediction of the next solar cycle." In short, it's going to be intense.
"It all hangs together," says Hathaway. Stay tuned for solar activity.
Source: by Dr. Tony Phillips, Science@NASA
|
In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, Hinode, ACE, Wind, TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.