SP5PBE. Warsaw DX Club.

Deep Solar Minimum

:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt

:Created: 2010 Jul 06 1900 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to Ten adres pocztowy jest chroniony przed spamowaniem. Aby go zobaczyć, konieczne jest włączenie w przeglądarce obsługi JavaScript.
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# See the README3 file for further information.
#
# Missing or not applicable data:  -1
#
#         Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
#                     With Expected Ranges
#
#         -----Sunspot Number------  ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2010 01         9.9    10.9     8.9       75.8    76.8    74.8
2010 02        12.5    14.5    10.5       77.6    78.6    76.6
2010 03        15.3    18.3    12.3       79.5    81.5    77.5
2010 04        18.1    23.1    13.1       81.3    84.3    78.3
2010 05        21.2    26.2    16.2       83.3    87.3    79.3
2010 06        24.2    30.2    18.2       85.3    89.3    81.3
2010 07        27.1    34.1    20.1       87.2    92.2    82.2
2010 08        29.9    36.9    22.9       88.9    94.9    82.9
2010 09        32.8    40.8    24.8       90.8    97.8    83.8
2010 10        36.4    45.4    27.4       93.2   101.2    85.2
2010 11        40.5    49.5    31.5       96.3   104.3    88.3
2010 12        44.5    54.5    34.5       99.6   108.6    90.6
2011 01        47.8    57.8    37.8      102.6   111.6    93.6
2011 02        50.7    60.7    40.7      105.2   114.2    96.2
2011 03        53.3    63.3    43.3      107.7   116.7    98.7
2011 04        55.9    65.9    45.9      110.0   119.0   101.0
2011 05        58.5    68.5    48.5      112.4   121.4   103.4
2011 06        60.9    70.9    50.9      114.6   123.6   105.6
2011 07        63.3    73.3    53.3      116.8   125.8   107.8
2011 08        65.7    75.7    55.7      119.0   128.0   110.0
2011 09        67.9    77.9    57.9      121.0   130.0   112.0
2011 10        70.0    80.0    60.0      123.0   132.0   114.0
2011 11        72.1    82.1    62.1      124.9   133.9   115.9
2011 12        74.0    84.0    64.0      126.7   135.7   117.7
2012 01        75.9    85.9    65.9      128.4   137.4   119.4
2012 02        77.6    87.6    67.6      130.0   139.0   121.0
2012 03        79.3    89.3    69.3      131.5   140.5   122.5
2012 04        80.8    90.8    70.8      132.9   141.9   123.9
2012 05        82.2    92.2    72.2      134.1   143.1   125.1
2012 06        83.5    93.5    73.5      135.3   144.3   126.3
2012 07        84.6    94.6    74.6      136.4   145.4   127.4
2012 08        85.7    95.7    75.7      137.4   146.4   128.4
2012 09        86.6    96.6    76.6      138.2   147.2   129.2
2012 10        87.5    97.5    77.5      139.0   148.0   130.0
2012 11        88.2    98.2    78.2      139.6   148.6   130.6
2012 12        88.7    98.7    78.7      140.2   149.2   131.2
2013 01        89.2    99.2    79.2      140.6   149.6   131.6
2013 02        89.6    99.6    79.6      140.9   149.9   131.9
2013 03        89.8    99.8    79.8      141.1   150.1   132.1
2013 04        89.9    99.9    79.9      141.3   150.3   132.3
2013 05        90.0   100.0    80.0      141.3   150.3   132.3
2013 06        89.9    99.9    79.9      141.2   150.2   132.2
2013 07        89.7    99.7    79.7      141.0   150.0   132.0
2013 08        89.4    99.4    79.4      140.7   149.7   131.7
2013 09        89.0    99.0    79.0      140.4   149.4   131.4
2013 10        88.5    98.5    78.5      139.9   148.9   130.9
2013 11        87.9    97.9    77.9      139.4   148.4   130.4
2013 12        87.2    97.2    77.2      138.8   147.8   129.8
2014 01        86.4    96.4    76.4      138.1   147.1   129.1
2014 02        85.6    95.6    75.6      137.3   146.3   128.3
2014 03        84.7    94.7    74.7      136.4   145.4   127.4
2014 04        83.7    93.7    73.7      135.5   144.5   126.5
2014 05        82.6    92.6    72.6      134.5   143.5   125.5
2014 06        81.4    91.4    71.4      133.5   142.5   124.5
2014 07        80.2    90.2    70.2      132.3   141.3   123.3
2014 08        78.9    88.9    68.9      131.2   140.2   122.2
2014 09        77.6    87.6    67.6      129.9   138.9   120.9
2014 10        76.2    86.2    66.2      128.7   137.7   119.7
2014 11        74.8    84.8    64.8      127.4   136.4   118.4
2014 12        73.3    83.3    63.3      126.0   135.0   117.0
2015 01        71.8    81.8    61.8      124.6   133.6   115.6
2015 02        70.2    80.2    60.2      123.2   132.2   114.2
2015 03        68.7    78.7    58.7      121.7   130.7   112.7
2015 04        67.0    77.0    57.0      120.2   129.2   111.2
2015 05        65.4    75.4    55.4      118.7   127.7   109.7
2015 06        63.8    73.8    53.8      117.2   126.2   108.2
2015 07        62.1    72.1    52.1      115.7   124.7   106.7
2015 08        60.4    70.4    50.4      114.1   123.1   105.1
2015 09        58.7    68.7    48.7      112.6   121.6   103.6
2015 10        57.0    67.0    47.0      111.0   120.0   102.0
2015 11        55.3    65.3    45.3      109.5   118.5   100.5
2015 12        53.6    63.6    43.6      107.9   116.9    98.9
2016 01        51.9    61.9    41.9      106.3   115.3    97.3
2016 02        50.2    60.2    40.2      104.8   113.8    95.8
2016 03        48.5    58.5    38.5      103.2   112.2    94.2
2016 04        46.9    56.9    36.9      101.7   110.7    92.7
2016 05        45.2    55.2    35.2      100.2   109.2    91.2
2016 06        43.6    53.6    33.6       98.7   107.7    89.7
2016 07        42.0    52.0    32.0       97.2   106.2    88.2
2016 08        40.4    50.4    30.4       95.8   104.8    86.8
2016 09        38.8    48.8    28.8       94.3   103.3    85.3
2016 10        37.3    47.3    27.3       92.9   101.9    83.9
2016 11        35.7    45.7    25.7       91.5   100.5    82.5
2016 12        34.3    44.3    24.3       90.2    99.2    81.2
2017 01        32.8    42.8    22.8       88.8    97.8    79.8
2017 02        31.4    41.4    21.4       87.5    96.5    78.5
2017 03        30.0    40.0    20.0       86.3    95.3    77.3
2017 04        28.7    38.7    18.7       85.0    94.0    76.0
2017 05        27.4    37.4    17.4       83.8    92.8    74.8
2017 06        26.1    36.1    16.1       82.6    91.6    73.6
2017 07        24.9    34.9    14.9       81.5    90.5    72.5
2017 08        23.7    33.7    13.7       80.4    89.4    71.4
2017 09        22.5    32.5    12.5       79.3    88.3    70.3
2017 10        21.4    31.4    11.4       78.3    87.3    69.3
2017 11        20.3    30.3    10.3       77.3    86.3    68.3
2017 12        19.2    29.2     9.2       76.4    85.4    67.4
2018 01        18.2    28.2     8.2       75.4    84.4    66.4
2018 02        17.2    27.2     7.2       74.5    83.5    65.5
2018 03        16.3    26.3     6.3       73.7    82.7    64.7
2018 04        15.4    25.4     5.4       72.8    81.8    63.8
2018 05        14.5    24.5     4.5       72.1    81.1    63.1
2018 06        13.7    23.7     3.7       71.3    80.3    62.3
2018 07        12.9    22.9     2.9       70.6    79.6    61.6
2018 08        12.2    22.2     2.2       69.9    78.9    60.9
2018 09        11.5    21.5     1.5       69.2    78.2    60.2
2018 10        10.8    20.8     0.8       68.6    77.6    60.0
2018 11        10.1    20.1     0.1       68.0    77.0    60.0
2018 12         9.5    19.5     0.0       67.4    76.4    60.0
2019 01         8.9    18.9     0.0       66.9    75.9    60.0
2019 02         8.3    18.3     0.0       66.3    75.3    60.0
2019 03         7.8    17.8     0.0       65.9    74.9    60.0
2019 04         7.3    17.3     0.0       65.4    74.4    60.0
2019 05         6.8    16.8     0.0       65.0    74.0    60.0
2019 06         6.4    16.4     0.0       64.5    73.5    60.0
2019 07         5.9    15.9     0.0       64.1    73.1    60.0
2019 08         5.5    15.5     0.0       63.8    72.8    60.0
2019 09         5.1    15.1     0.0       63.4    72.4    60.0
2019 10         4.8    14.8     0.0       63.1    72.1    60.0
2019 11         4.4    14.4     0.0       62.8    71.8    60.0
2019 12         4.1    14.1     0.0       62.5    71.5    60.0

Space Weather Prediction Center moves the solar cycle goalpost again

Mike Ronanye writes:

SWPC has just made a change in their solar cycle predictions in the middle of the month without any preannouncement. Both Sunspot and F10.7cm predictions were altered significantly.

See the following links:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

The off-cycle update is in this week’s PDF report which contains the altered graphics:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1747.pdf

You can see the last monthly summary here which I have been complaining reporting about, here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1745.pdf
This should have been the January 2009 summary but SWPC recycled the December 2008 summary.

April 1, 2009: The sunspot cycle is behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom, it goes even lower.

2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008.

Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).

It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.

"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Above: The sunspot cycle from 1995 to the present. The jagged curve traces actual sunspot counts. Smooth curves are fits to the data and one forecaster's predictions of future activity. Credit: David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC. [more]

Quiet suns come along every 11 years or so. It's a natural part of the sunspot cycle, discovered by German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe in the mid-1800s. Sunspots are planet-sized islands of magnetism on the surface of the sun; they are sources of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and intense UV radiation. Plotting sunspot counts, Schwabe saw that peaks of solar activity were always followed by valleys of relative calm—a clockwork pattern that has held true for more than 200 years: plot.

The current solar minimum is part of that pattern. In fact, it's right on time. "We're due for a bit of quiet—and here it is," says Pesnell.

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A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990s—the lowest point since such measurements began in the 1960s. The solar wind helps keep galactic cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. With the solar wind flagging, more cosmic rays are permitted to enter, resulting in increased health hazards for astronauts. Weaker solar wind also means fewer geomagnetic storms and auroras on Earth.

A 12-year low in solar "irradiance": Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996. The changes so far are not enough to reverse the course of global warming, but there are some other significant side-effects: Earth's upper atmosphere is heated less by the sun and it is therefore less "puffed up." Satellites in low Earth orbit experience less atmospheric drag, extending their operational lifetimes. Unfortunately, space junk also remains longer in Earth orbit, increasing hazards to spacecraft and satellites.

Above: Space-age measurements of the total solar irradiance (brightness summed across all wavelengths). This plot, which comes from researcher C. Fröhlich, was shown by Dean Pesnell at the Fall 2008 AGU meeting during a lecture entitled "What is Solar Minimum and Why Should We Care?"

A 55-year low in solar radio emissions: After World War II, astronomers began keeping records of the sun's brightness at radio wavelengths. Records of 10.7 cm flux extend back all the way to the early 1950s. Radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955: plot. Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field. No one is certain, however, because the source of these long-monitored radio emissions is not fully understood.

All these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird", "extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually intense solar maxima.

"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."

Deep calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913, for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to last at least another year.

In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, Hinode, ACE, Wind, TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.

Above: An artist's concept of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Bristling with advanced sensors, "SDO" is slated to launch later this year--perfect timing to study the ongoing solar minimum. [more]

Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum will end and how big the next solar maximum will be. Pesnell has surveyed the scientific literature and prepared a "piano plot" showing the range of predictions. The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.

Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013.

But like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong. Bull or bear? Stay tuned for updates.

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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

An erupting solar prominence photographed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one. Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

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Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms.

Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect.

Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. "The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future," says Hathaway. A picture is worth a thousand words:

Peaks in geomagnetic activity (red) foretell solar maxima (black) more than six years in advance. Credit: NASA

In the plot, above, black curves are solar cycles; the amplitude is the sunspot number. Red curves are geomagnetic indices, specifically the Inter-hour Variability Index or IHV. "These indices are derived from magnetometer data recorded at two points on opposite sides of Earth: one in England and another in Australia. IHV data have been taken every day since 1868," says Hathaway.

Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.

"We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."

According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.

Hathaway and Wilson's prediction for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. Credit: NASA

These results are just the latest signs pointing to a big Cycle 24. Most compelling of all, believes Hathaway, is the work of Mausumi Dikpati and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. "They have combined observations of the sun’s 'Great Conveyor Belt' with a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo to produce a physics-based prediction of the next solar cycle." In short, it's going to be intense.

"It all hangs together," says Hathaway. Stay tuned for solar activity.